Is the fall of Bashar al-Assad proving to be a golden opportunity for Erdogan?

 Tuesday, December 17, 2024

ISLAMABAD (Point News Today / Pakistan Point News - 17th Dec, 2024 ) : By backing the rebels who ousted Bashar al-Assad and acting as a mediator in the Horn of Africa peace deal, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has boosted his international standing and is looking to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, analysts say.

Although Turkey was not directly involved in the ouster of Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad, it has long maintained ties with the Islamist-led HTS rebels who overthrew Assad, while other governments are concerned about the group’s al-Qaeda roots.

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared overjoyed as rebels stormed Damascus.

A few days later, Ibrahim Kalin, the head of his domestic intelligence service, became the first high-profile figure to meet with Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now known by his real name Ahmed al-Shara’.

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Erdogan pulled off another diplomatic coup that week to end a bitter year-long dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia.

One of the clearest signs of Erdogan’s significant improvement in international standing is the praise he received from US President-elect Donald Trump on Monday for Turkey’s role in the Syrian uprising.

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“I think Turkey is very smart, they did an unfriendly occupation, in which not many lives were lost,” Trump told reporters at his Florida residence.

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‘Erdogan has played his cards well so far’

Experts and analysts from various international think tanks have described Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s numerous political and diplomatic moves since the fall of Damascus as a well-thought-out strategy. “Erdogan has played the long game from a power projection and security perspective,” Anthony Skinner, director of Marlow Global, a leading British research network, told AFP.

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He added that his government had “carefully built relationships with both state and non-state actors so that Turkey could advance in the rear of Syria and further afield.” According to Anthony Skinner, “Turkey’s return to Syria and the Horn of Africa is particularly clear.

Erdogan has played his cards well so far and his role in Syria is enviable.”

A few days later, Erdogan also offered practical steps to resolve the brutal conflict between Khartoum and Abu Dhabi that has engulfed Sudan, in which thousands have died.

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“Erdogan is a major winner of the uprising in Syria,” said Max Abrahams, a professor of international security and author of a book on the motivations of terrorist groups.

“With Assad’s long-term supporter out of the picture, Russia is locked in a war with Ukraine. Iran, meanwhile, has been weakened by Israeli attacks on its Hezbollah proxy. This has paved the way for Turkish President Erdogan to play the political game openly.

"This is a great opportunity for Turkey to increase its influence in Syria." International security expert Max Abrahams believes that this situation gives Ankara the opportunity to move forward to reduce the threat posed by the Kurdish militant group PKK, especially against Syrian Kurdish fighters. He added that what could further strengthen Turkey would be the decision by the incoming Trump administration to withdraw US troops from Syria.