The new year will be stormy for the European Union!

 Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Islamabad (UrduPoint News Today/ Pakistan Point News - 12th Dec, 2024 ) The deteriorating situation in Ukraine, a war-mad Russia and Donald Trump’s narcissism will be the three biggest challenges for the European Union in 2025.

On the other hand, the internal problems of Germany and France, such as a sluggish economy, high debt levels and limited political capacity, may create more problems for the European Union.

In simple words, it can be said that the complications for the European Union in 2025 may double due to the above factors.

The question is, what lies ahead for the new team of the European Union?

Another problem is that the European leadership is also new. The President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, and the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs, Kaia Kallis, have assumed their new responsibilities since December 1.

Although the frozen politician Ursula von der Leyen is still the head of the European Commission, this European institution has been completely restructured.

According to Steven Everts, director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies, despite all the potential problems, the new EU team has the opportunity to meet the challenges.

In an interview with DW, Steven said that although a new leadership is currently taking power in the EU, this is the moment when the EU's foreign policy can be reconsidered and, while adapting it to new requirements, it is possible to revive the EU's fundamental values.

More help for Ukraine

At the top of the priorities is financial and military assistance for Ukraine, which is under Russian aggression. The EU plans to provide Kiev with 1.5 billion euros ($1.6 billion) per month from its common budget in 2025.

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In addition, the G7 has allocated 50 billion euros in loans for Ukraine.

The money will be drawn from profits from frozen Russian assets.

In addition, there is a plan to make it possible to provide large quantities of ammunition and weapons to help Ukraine, a candidate for EU membership. This financial support will be provided by European states.

However, if Donald Trump starts to act on his threats to Ukraine after assuming the presidency, the result will be a reduction or cancellation of US aid to Ukraine and thus an additional burden will be transferred to the EU.

According to European diplomats, there is intense speculation in Brussels about how much more money the EU will need to help Ukraine if the US withdraws.

Investing in defense capabilities

In addition to financial support for Ukraine, the EU also plans to further improve its defense against Russia.

EU Commissioner for Defence and Space Andreas Kobelco has not been tasked with creating a European army, but he has been given the responsibility of better coordinating member states’ arms and procurement policies.

Many EU states have budgets so small that they cannot afford to buy new weapons or increase the number of their troops immediately.

If Trump comes to power, if he cuts US spending on European defence and demands more financial support from European countries, the pressure on the EU could increase further.

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According to estimates by the Munich-based economic research institute Ifo, Germany alone will have a deficit of 230 billion euros in the medium term. Italy’s deficit is 120 billion euros, while Spain’s is 80 billion euros.

Meanwhile, Germany's new Finance Minister Joerg Kuczyk has rejected the idea of ​​drawing down additional joint EU debt to help with the military spending of some member states.

Trade policy and the struggle to maintain unity

2025 could also be a difficult year for the EU in terms of trade policy. The race for electric cars threatens a trade war between the EU and China.

On the other hand, Trump could spark a dramatic dispute over punitive tariffs on Europe, China, Mexico and Canada.

Janis Emanuelis, an EU affairs expert at the European Policy Center think tank, is not optimistic about the new year.

“The EU has always been a guarantor of compromise, but now it seems to have lost that ability,” Janis said at an event in Brussels in early December, referring to the EU’s foreign policy and military challenges.

The EU no longer has the answers to many things. Nationalism has become more prevalent in politics.”

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Janece believes that many circles, especially the EU candidate countries in the Western Balkans, have lost hope that the 27-member bloc will fulfill its promises in the future.

He added that it is necessary for France and Germany to play a significant role in the EU in these specific circumstances, but France has been weakened by its government crises, while early elections have limited Germany's ability to act.

Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban says that his country, as the president of the Council of the European Union, has tried to establish peace in Ukraine by building rapprochement with Russia and that he is also looking forward to Trump's return to the White House.

In this situation, it can be said that 2025 will be interesting, but the new year will be very stormy for the EU.

Bernd Riegert (AB / АС)

This article was first published in German.